Special Book Review: Impending Crisis, by Roger Herman,
Joyce Gioia and Tom Olivo
Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too
Few People, by Roger E. Herman, Joyce Gioia and
Tom Olivo
 Roger
E. Herman, CSP, CMC, FIMC, is a futurist who specializes
in workforce issues. His books include, Keeping Good
People and How to Become an Employer of Choice.
He has a new book coming out this fall, and MCNews presents
a sneak preview of it in this interview.
* * * * *
MCNews: What is the impending crisis in
the title of the book?
Herman: It's a labor shortage coming
this decade that will make the tight labor market of the
late 1990's look like a practice session. Most employers
and human resource professionals are not aware of how severe
the shortage will be, or that it will affect all areas of
the country and every industry. Obviously, those that are
more dependent on labor will be impacted the most, for example,
retail, health care and transportation.
MCNews: What's the cause of the crisis?
Herman: Three primary factors are converging
to create the labor shortage: first, the economy is expanding,
which creates more jobs; second is the nature of that growth;
and, third is the drop in the birth rate.
Employers don't see this coming because they
focus on the short term and don't look very far down the
road. Most CEO's and other top executives are compensated
based on short-term results like earnings and stock price,
not long-term growth.
Also, people are so fixated on the fluctuations
of the stock market they don't see that the economy is about
to heat up again. We have been warning about this, but people
say, oh, you are nuts.
MCNews: So, you think the perception
that it's a bad economy is a myth?
Herman: No question. The fact is that
consumer spending has never slowed down. In the near term,
as more jobs become available, people will get absorbed
from the unemployment ranks. Then, we will start to see
a substantial amount of churning in the marketplace as people
who have been cocooning say I am out of here--I don't like
my boss, my co-workers are jerks, or I don't like the kind
of work I have been doing, so I'm going on to something
better. Employee retention programs will not be adequate
to stem the flow.
MCNews: How does the birth rate
figure into all this?
Herman: We've already had a 15% drop
from the Baby Boomers to Generation X'ers. Births increased
during the Baby Boom Echo, but as the economy grows, more
jobs will be created than we will have people to fill them.
Numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate
that, if present trends continue, we could have ten million
more jobs than people by the year 2010.
And, that just counts raw numbers of people.
If you are an employer who needs people with particular
skills, it will be even more difficult. So, if you want
to attract those few people who will meet your needs, you
will have to become what I describe as an employer of choice.
Employers will have to invest a lot more in training and
education to bring their people up to levels needed for
the future, and will have to foster environments in which
employees are more loyal than they are now.
MCNews: How should consultants bring this
to their clients' attention?
Herman: Consultants should research
this issue and let their clients know how this crisis could
change the way they are doing business. Some businesses
may even be looking at extinction. This is a wake up call,
and consultants should figure out how their expertise can
help clients weather the storm. Consultants can find helpful
information at www.impendingcrisis.com.
MCNews: Thanks for bringing this to our
attention.
Find out more about Roger Herman and his upcoming
book at www.hermangroup.com.
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